A macro analysis of Bitcoin suggests that the recent surge in price from $15k to $28k was not indicative of a bull market, as it was largely influenced by big players’ future orders and a massive short squeeze back in January 2023. While those with less than 1 BTC kept buying, whales with over 1,000 BTC kept selling since March 2022, even at the bottom in November 2022. Additionally, there is a $1bn BUSD fund from Binance aimed at supporting the market and counteracting negative sentiment, but with only $430m left, potential growth may be limited to $32k at most.

The second quarter of 2023 may be unfavourable for the cryptocurrency market and broader financial markets due to factors such as a banking crisis, inflation, regulations, and global events. The author acquired some crypto assets at low prices in Q4 2022 and sold them at a favourable point, currently holding 99% in cash. While the author was bullish on Bitcoin when it declined to $19.5k – $20k and predicted that movement, they were wrong on the price increase to $28k and started accumulating short positions at that point, which they still hold in loss.

The author believes that Bitcoin may revisit lows of $16k-$17k or even lower, and most altcoins may lose more value than expected and disappear in the long run. A bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggests a significant correction is imminent, possibly leading to a head and shoulders pattern that confirms the downtrend to the lows. The price may drop to $21k-$23k before heading lower in Q2. The author sees this as a potential opportunity to buy Bitcoin and some altcoins at low prices before they recover in the future.